Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
