A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – however right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
